Japanese earthquake and tsunami and nuclear crisis triggered already become Japan's worst disaster. Ending March 18, were killed, missing toll was 16,600 people, hundreds of thousands of people displaced people homeless, if more than 80 million homes without power and preliminary estimates economic loss not less than 1,000 billion dollars.
In Thailand, the Japan for tourism major earthquake inevitably impact on Japanese tourists market. Taehwa farmers research center forecasts 2011 there will be 120 million Japanese tourists traveling in Thailand for Thailand, bring about 380 million baht tourism revenue. After the earthquake, taehwa farmers research center points analyzed two hypotheses for Japan to Japanese earthquake's influence of tourists market are as follows:
The first kind of circumstance, if Japan post-disaster reconstruction quickly, will make the earthquake a serious recession of Japanese tourists market in the fourth quarter in 2011 to recovery.ugg too short In this case forecast 2011 the number of Japanese tourists in Thailand entry about 85 million for Thailand, bring about 230 million baht tourist income, compared with last year were down 12% and 23%. Compared with earlier forecast to Thailand, Japanese tourists tourism revenues will reduce about 150 million baht.
The 2nd kind of circumstance, if Japan post-disaster reconstruction the slowness of the progress, will make Japanese tourists continue until the end of 2011 market decline. In this case forecast 2011 the number of Japanese tourists in Thailand entry about 70 million for Thailand, bring about 180 million baht tourist income, compared with last year were down 28 percent and 40 percent. Compared with earlier forecast to Thailand, Japanese tourists tourist income will reduce about 200 million baht.
However, taehwa farmers research center, 2011 expected entry tourists in Thailand market still gain from China, South Korea, India, Scandinavian countries and Russia etc. Several high potential lines visitors the important support market growth. Annual tourist arrivals are expected to increase in the number of total than forecast 170-175 million higher, make the possibility of total tourist income is expected to more than previous entry prediction of the 6,000-65 million baht, offsetting Japanese tourists market losses.
Moreover, Japan's serious natural disasters may persuade Japan elderly more choice to retire in Japan than more security, countries with lower cost of living, this to settle in aged tourism resources, service employees and living expenses, etc for the superiority of beacon is a chance. In Thailand Taehwa farmers research center thinks, expand long-term residence tourism market not only helps to increasing tourist arrivals, and brought tourism income to help slow the real estate industry and hotel glut in Thailand, and drawing the correlation industry growth.
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