As for long-term economic research institute

NDRC foreign economic research institute i.a. Campbell said

 

According to reports, Japan's economic sound earthquake the impact on the Chinese economy will ultimately have how old, has been parties economists height focus. 20, the tsinghua university was held in China and jude the world economy on BBS, some experts think the, the Japanese earthquake may reduce China's GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points, short-term capital market will have certain degree of unrest.

 

Impact on Japanese recovery speed

 

Yesterday afternoon, many economists have "Japan to China economy may earthquake what effects brought this problem, launched a heated discussion. Some experts said that at present, China's economic external dependence high, Japan is the world's leading producer of semiconductor components, one hand China is semiconductor processing high-rises, on the other hand, domestic demand is strong, so Japan on the impact of the earthquake in China very big.

 

NDRC foreign economic research institute that domestic i.a. Campbell who have zero inventory, supply chain management fairly good enterprise, will be bigger influence. Because domestic supply chain management overall do not particularly good, our inventory can support a month or so. Japan institute of nomura capital market GuanGen honor that represent a recovering from disaster Japanese production needs about a month's time.

 

Accordingly, this catastrophe, analyzed i.a. Campbell with various external impact role in the first quarter, China's GDP will drop 0.5%. But i.a. Campbell says if Japan post-disaster production recovery slower, more than a month, impact to China to bigger.

 

Semiconductor manufacturing or move to kansai

 

BBS for Japan, how to divert semiconductor manufacturing in the future, have experts suggest, Japan to China, or perhaps should other Asian regions semiconductor industry. Understand Japanese expert explains, because the historical reason, Japan's great kanto and kansai electric power supply difference is very big, the influence of the earthquake in kansai is not great, so Japan may first put semiconductor production transferred to the kansai region. This is the most likely to do within short time.

 

Of course, in the long run, this may be an opportunity to Japanese ugg too short industrial upgrading, is gradually transferred to foreign semiconductor manufacturing, gradually like America, upstream to industry shift.

 

The Japanese yen appreciation is short-term problems

 

About the Japanese yen appreciation issue, many experts think this is short-term problems. Because the post-disaster insurance company to large-scale compensation, so recent liquidity go to Japan, the yen will also rise, but long will return to normal.

 

As for Japan's earthquake in Chinese capital market other aspects of the influence, the expert thinks, in the short term, summer immediately arrived, Japan will pass coal-fired power to ease supply shortage of natural gas and oil, demand will rise dramatically. As for long-term economic research institute, Chinese academy of social sciences YuanGang Ming think, Japanese researchers will stop on the future development of nuclear power. The 2001 Nobel economic prize winner SiDiGeLiCi just think, nuclear power is safe, will vigorously develop nuclear power, oil, natural gas prices as countries, will release reserves decline.